—AAG MEMBERS’ PETITION—

**YOUR SIGNATURE WILL NOT BE COUNTED UNLESS YOU ARE A MEMBER OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS; IF YOU ARE NOT A MEMBER, PLEASE DO NOT SIGN**

To be submitted to the Executive Committee and Council of the Association of American Geographers for consideration at the 102nd Annual Meeting in Chicago, March 7-11, 2006

RESOLUTION: URGENT BUSH ADMINISTRATION ACTION NEEDED ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

GIVEN:

That global climate change, with its attendant consequences of climatic region shifts, sea-level rise and island and coastal inundation, increases in anomalous weather events, the spread of disease vectors, agricultural impacts, increases in heat index (humidex) deaths and ailments, disruption of regional water resources, losses to soil moisture and prolonged persistent droughts in many regions (see supporting “Scientific Appendix”), does, in fact, represent a major threat to human and non-human populations, with potentially severe consequences to global economies, and indigenous livelihoods;

And, insofar as international scientific consensus points to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions as a critical factor driving current global climate changes (see supporting “Scientific Appendix”);

And, insofar as a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will act to slow the rate of these changes in global environments, giving societies more lead time to facilitate required adaptation in economies, settlement patterns, and lifestyles, as well as produce added benefits in improved health, species preservation, reduced acid deposition, and reduced pollution of the atmosphere, waterways, and oceans;

And, insofar as the countries of the world joined in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and established a Conference of the Parties (COP), with the Kyoto Protocol emerging from COP-3, the Rulebook from COP-7 in Marrakech, and COP-11 taking place in Montreal in December 2005;

And, in light of Russian ratification of Kyoto in November 2004, which made the Protocol on lowering greenhouse gas emissions international law in February 2005;

And, insofar as these agreements occurred without the participation of the United States, which acted with disruptive tactics at international meetings, and whose delegation walked out of the COP-11 proceedings in Montreal*, leads this Association to conclude that the current United States administration has consistently hindered international efforts to address global climate change…

THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED THAT THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS HEREWITH ENJOINS THE CURRENT BUSH ADMINISTRATION TO IMMEDIATELY:

1. Accept and affirm the international scientific consensus on global climate change (see “Scientific Appendix”);

2. Act upon commitments made by the United States in the UNFCCC, May 9, 1992; ratify the Kyoto Process and Rulebook; accede to the Conference of the Parties; and affirm the International Polar Year for research and science, March 1, 2007 to March 1, 2009;

3. Cooperate fully with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Artic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) of the Arctic Council, the European Environment Agency (EEA), and other governmental and nongovernmental organizations, as well as with the international community of countries, to better scientifically understand human-forced climate change and to develop sound policies to attenuate greenhouse gas emissions.

4. Affirm the essential role of integrative geographic science in synthesizing and analyzing global data in the pursuit of further understanding of global climate change and making informed policy decisions.


* See: http://unfccc.int/2860.php, unfccc.int/meetings/cop_11/items/3394.php, and for background, http://www.ipcc.ch/, and http://www.giss.nasa.gov/, among many others.


SCIENTIFIC APPENDIX

A small representative sample from the scientific literature:

1. Global scientific efforts established a substantial body of evidence and reached a consensus that present record land and sea temperature increases are anthropogenically forced—the result of increased levels of radiatively active greenhouse gases. The IPCC published its Third Assessment Report (earlier reports in 1990 and 1995), concluding, in part:

“…there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities….Both temperature and sea level are projected to continue to rise throughout the 21st century for all scenarios studied…. there is conclusive evidence for a worldwide recession of mountain glaciers.”1

2. The ACIA (2004), following four-years of multidisciplinary research concluded in their report Impacts of a Warming Arctic, in part:

“Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), and secondarily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping (“'greenhouse”') gases in the atmosphere….this is projected to lead to significant and persistent changes in climate…these changes are projected to lead to wide-ranging consequences including significant impact on coastal communities, animal and plant species, water resources, and human health and well being.”2

3. The EEA stated in its 2004 report, Impacts of Europe’s Changing Climate, in part:

“Due to human activities, the concentration of greenhouse gas has increased 34% compared with preindustrial levels….Europe has warmed more than the global average, with a 0.95 C° increase since 1990. Temperatures in winter increased more than in summer….Glaciers in eight out of nine European glacier regions are in retreat.”3

4. All the scientific reports find that the high latitudes are being impacted at a far greater rate than the rest of the globe. According to both IPCC and ACIA research, the Arctic Region has been warming at a rate of 1.2 C° (2.2 F°) per decade since 1978, or about 5 C° (9 F°) during this time span. As a result, the Arctic Ocean pack ice shrunk to its lowest extent in the record in September 2005, a fourth low year in a row and less than the low ice periods in the 1930s and 1940s.4

5. Analysis of the Dome–C ice core on the East Antarctic Plateau, an 8-year project and part of a 10-country European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA), affirms previous ice-core findings concerning present record levels of greenhouse gases. Results published in November 2005 stated that analysis is complete through the past 650,000 years and confirm that present levels of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are the highest in the entire record. Furthermore, the covariation between these radiatively active gases and climate previously identified in the Vostok, Antarctica ice core, are strikingly evident, further proving the link between climate and greenhouse gases. (This ice core is down to Marine Isotope Stage 18.4 level or 807,000 years B.P., as of 2004.)5

6. Declining glacial ice in the Andes, East Africa, Himalayas, and Western North American mountains are related to climate warming and significant water resource losses in affected regions. The Alaskan and Andean glacial melts alone account for more than 16% of global sea-level rise.6

7. Research establishes a new “total dissipation index” to rate the potential destructiveness, integrated over the lifetime, of tropical cyclones. This index is a gauge of storm intensity. The new research relates the marked increase in tropical cyclone intensity since 1970 as “...highly correlated with tropical sea-surface temperatures, reflecting well-documented climate signals...and global warming.” Among several conclusions: “...the near doubling of power dissipation over the period of record should be a matter of some concern, as it is a measure of the destructive potential of tropical cyclones.” This intensity in each storm is significant because we are in an increased cycle in terms of numbers—the 2005 season set many records including most named storms (27, average is 10; not ending until 1/6/2006), hurricanes (14, average is 5), and number of intense hurricanes category 3 or higher (7, average is 2). The forecast for 2006 is 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.7

8. Surface albedo (the reflective quality of a surface) is a function of its color—dark is most absorptive, white is most reflective. Rising temperatures in the Arctic regions are leading to less Arctic Ocean pack ice (2005 was the lowest extent in pack ice in the record) and also reduced surface snow on land. This results in darker, more absorptive surfaces, with surface energy budgets approaching a dynamic threshold, a “tipping point.”8

9. In many research papers in refereed journals: a warming signal and a rate of warming at a pace not in the instrument or proxy record; emissions of greenhouse gases continues to increase and will influence climatic trends through the 21st century; as temperatures increase sea-level rise continues at a record pace, with several island countries already beginning permanent evacuations; an earlier spring and later fall seasonal cycle is observed in all midlatitude and high latitude regions resulting in ecosystems dislocations of species and expected species behavior; record ocean temperatures to depth contribute to 25% of sea-level rise by thermal expansion; indigenous forms of economic activity are changing for high-latitude peoples; additional sources of carbon are emerging as permafrost and ground ice melt and active layers deepen, leading to added peat oxidation; increases in plant respiration across many biomes owing to nighttime warming dominance; the spread of disease vectors that lack thermostatic control and increase their range with increasing warmth and moisture, e.g., malaria, dengue fever, West Nile Virus, schistosomiasis, sleeping sickness; and, temperature increases are greater during nighttime and wintertime, as compared to daytime and summertime, strongly signaling present climate changes that are not part of any natural cycles.

10. The results of a survey of all 928 climate change papers published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003 (ISI database), were divided into six categories and analyzed. Naomi Oreskes stated, “Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position.” There is a scientific consensus that human activities are heating Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere. The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) concludes:

“This analysis shows that scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed literature agree with IPCC, the National Academy of Sciences, and public statements of their professional societies. Politicians, economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of confusion, disagreement, or discord among climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect….there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change.”9

11. The 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report temperature forecasts for the twenty-first century are, with the rates of change in the higher latitudes and polar regions about double that of the middle and lower latitudes according to IPCC and ACIA reports:

•High forecast: 5.8 C° (10.4 F°)
•Middle forecast: 3.6 C° (6.5 F°)
•Low forecast: 1.4 C° (2.5 F°).

The 2001 IPCC forecast scenarios for global mean sea-level rise this century, given regional variations, are:

•Low forecast: 0.09 m (3.5 in.)
•Middle forecast: 0.48 m (18.9 in.)
•High forecast: 0.88 m (34.7 in.)

(Noted is evidence that these sea-level rise figures need revision upward as the rate of increase is apparently accelerating.)

12. The National Research Council (NRC) in response to an administration request to investigate the IPCC scientific rigor confirmed that the IPCC Third Assessment Report, “…accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue.”10

13. The IPCC Working Group III describes “No regrets” options in reduction of greenhouse gas emissions even if the consensus science proves incorrect, in that:

“No regrets options are by definition greenhouse gas emissions reduction options that have negative net costs, because they generate direct and indirect benefits that are large enough to offset the costs of implementing the options.”11

Claims that curbing greenhouse gas emissions would damage the U.S. economy are not supported in the scientific literature. Five Department of Energy national laboratories, including Oak Ridge (ORNL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL), National Renewable Energy (NREL), and Argonne (ANL) reported that the U.S. can meet the Kyoto carbon emission reduction targets with negative overall costs (cash benefit savings) ranging from –$7 to –$34 billion.12

14. And that, as an example among many, climate change is accelerating biodiversity losses and increasing rates of animal and plant extinctions, such as the harlequin frog (Atelopus). Researchers attribute climate change related to global warming with the extinction of 67% of the 110 known species of this frog between 1975 and 2000. The integrated analysis links temperature increases, cloud-cover changes and albedo-cloud forcing, thus lowering surface temperatures below 25°C (77°F) permitting the sudden increase of an opportunistic skin fungus and decimating this indicator species.

“The powerful synergy between pathogen transmission and climate change should give us cause for concern about human health in a warmer world….The frogs are sending an alarm call to all concerned about the future of biodiversity and the need to protect the greatest of all open-access resources—the atmosphere.”13

Footnotes:

1 IPCC, Working Group I, Climate Change 2001, The Scientific Basis (London: Cambridge University Press, 2001), p. ix.

2 ACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic (London: Cambridge University Press, 2004), p. 2; and, Special Issue of AMBIO “Climate Change and UV-B Impacts on Tundra and Polar Desert Ecosystems,” The Royal Swedish Academy of Science, vol 33 no 7, November 2004. http://www.arctic-council.org/.

3 EEA, Impacts of Europe's Changing Climate (Copenhagen: EEA Report No. 2/2004), p. 6.



4 NSIDC, “Sea Ice Decline Intensifies,” September 28, 2005, National Snow and Ice data Center (NSIDC), (http://nsidc.org).

5 R. Spahni, et. al., “Atmospheric Methane and Nitrous Oxide of the Late Pleistocene from Antarctic Ice Cores,” Science 310 (November 25, 2005): 1317-21; summary by E.J. Brook, “Tiny Bubbles Tell All,” pp. 1285-87 in same issue.

6 P.W. Mote, et. al., “Declining Mountain Snowpack in Western North America,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86 (January 2005): 39-49; T.P. Barnett, et. al., “Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions,” Nature 438 (November 17, 2005): 303-09, and summary 275-76.

7 K. Emanual, “Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years,” Nature 436 (August 4, 2005): 686-688.

8 S. Perkins, “Runaway Heat, A darkening Arctic may accelerate warming trends there,” Science News 168 (November 12, 2005): 312-14.

9 Naomi Oreskes, “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Science 306 (December 3, 2004): 1686.

10 NRC Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Climate Change Science, An Analysis of Some Key Questions (Washington: National Academy Press, May 2001).

11 Working Group III, Climate Change 2001, Mitigation, (London: Cambridge University Press, 2001): 21, 474–76.

12 S. Brown, “Scenarios of U.S. carbon reductions,” 1997; and “A Clean Energy Future for the U.S.,” 2000, prepared by ORNL, LBNL, PNNL, NREL, ANL, Washington: Department of Energy.

13 J. A. Ponds, et. al., “Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming,” Nature 439 (January 12, 2006): 161-67; summary by A. Blaustein and A. Dobson, “A message from the frogs,” in the same issue pp. 143-44.

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